South Africa’s wholesale turnover rose in May, but the increase was driven by fuel-related dealers while inflation-adjusted sales contracted sharply.
South African wholesale trade sales presented two very different pictures in May, depending on whether the figures were measured in rand or adjusted for inflation.
At current prices, sales increased by 4% compared with May 2025. In real terms, however, wholesale volumes fell by 6.9% over the same period, according to Statistics South Africa. Seasonally adjusted real sales also declined by 7.4% from April, following a 2.3% monthly fall in April and growth of 6.4% in March.
Fuel carries the headline
Dealers in solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels and related products recorded a 24.2% year-on-year increase in nominal sales. The category contributed 5.6 percentage points to the overall 4% rise, meaning fuel-related turnover more than accounted for the headline increase.
The other wholesale categories, taken together, pulled growth lower.
The contrast between rising nominal sales and falling real sales suggests that higher prices, rather than stronger underlying volumes, were doing much of the work. Dealers in agricultural raw materials and livestock recorded the largest negative contribution.
Their sales fell by 14.3% at current prices, subtracting one percentage point from total nominal growth.
A mixed three-month picture
The monthly contraction follows stronger wholesale activity earlier in the year, when Stats SA counted wholesale trade among the stronger-performing sectors in the first quarter. Seasonally adjusted real sales increased by 2% in the three months to May compared with the previous three-month period.
At current prices, sales over the same three months were 8.2% higher than a year earlier.
Fuel dealers again provided most of that nominal increase, with sales rising 24% and contributing 5.6 percentage points. Dealers in intermediate products, waste, and scrap increased sales by 22.5%, adding another 1.1 percentage points. The May figures show why rising turnover does not necessarily signal stronger trading conditions.
Once price changes are removed, wholesale activity was substantially weaker than a year earlier, a reversal from the sector’s position as one of the first quarter’s stronger performers.
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