After years of chronic electricity shortages and load shedding, Eskom is facing a markedly different challenge: finding customers for its available power.
The utility estimates that it will have between 2GW and 3GW of surplus capacity over the next few years following sustained improvements in generation performance and a structural decline in electricity sales.
Eskom said on Monday that electricity sales volumes fell 6.2% to 178TWh in the year to March 2026, despite the group recording its second consecutive annual profit.
Industrial electricity demand drops 22.5%
Industrial electricity demand recorded the biggest decline, falling 22.5%, or 9.7TWh, during the year.
According to Eskom, weaker economic conditions, embedded self-generation, energy-efficiency improvements, wheeling and lower demand from energy-intensive industries have contributed to electricity sales declining by about 2% annually over the past decade.
At the same time, Eskom’s generation fleet has recovered.
The combination of falling demand and improved generation has resulted in what the utility describes as “structural overcapacity” for the first time in more than a decade.
Eskom looks for new electricity demand
With more capacity available, Eskom is now looking at ways to retain existing customers while stimulating new demand for electricity.
Its plans include negotiated electricity pricing for ferroalloy and other smelters, attracting data centres and expanding electric-vehicle charging.
The utility is also looking at increasing wheeling activity and introducing flexible electricity loads.
Among the options being considered is a pilot project involving Bitcoin mining as a potential source of flexible demand.
Eskom wants to stabilise electricity sales at around 178TWh over the medium term before returning to growth.
Surplus electricity brings a new financial challenge
The emerging surplus marks a significant shift from the years when insufficient generation capacity resulted in load shedding and constrained businesses and economic activity.
But having more available electricity than customers require presents its own financial challenge.
Lower electricity sales mean reduced use of Eskom’s generating assets and put pressure on revenue, even when the power system is performing well.
Eskom reported a R30.3 billion profit after tax for the year, up from a restated R14 billion previously.
Revenue increased by 4.1%, supported by a 12.74% electricity tariff increase despite the decline in sales volumes.
With Eskom investing heavily in generation and grid infrastructure, the utility said growing electricity sales will now be critical to maintaining its financial sustainability.
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